Co-movement in Stock Prices in Emerging Economies: The Case of the Caricom Region

The Grand Anse Declaration of 1989 recognised the need for financial integration within the emerging economies that comprise the CARICOM region, as a way of furthering the wider process of economic integration and, indeed, economic development in that region. Using co-movement as a measure of financial integration, this paper investigates the co-movement in stock prices among the Barbados, the Jamaica and the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchanges, the three major exchanges within the CARICOM region. It also examines how integrated these exchanges are with the New York Stock Exchange. The GARCH-Copula methodology and, to a lesser extent, estimated correlation coefficients, are used to attain this objective. There appears to be co-movement in stock prices and returns within the CARICOM stock markets and significant dependence structures between the returns of the three CARICOM stock markets. However, there is considerably less evidence of integration between the CARICOM markets and the New York Stock Exchange.     

乡村振兴战略下农村产业融合、人力资本与农民增收*——以浙江省为例

［目的］乡村振兴战略是贯彻新发展理念，建设现代化经济强国的重大战略之一。农村产业兴旺，农民生活富裕是乡村振兴战略的重要目标。农村一、二、三产业融合发展是实现乡村产业振兴，农民增收的重要途径。农村人力资本状况关系到农村产业融合的人才建设，关系到农民增收的实现。文章力图探究乡村振兴战略下农村产业融合、人力资本与农民增收间的相互作用关系，以期为乡村振兴战略的实现提供政策建议。［方法］以浙江省为例进行实证分析，通过建立PVAR模型，采用格兰杰因果关系及面板数据模型进行检验。［结果］农村产业融合及人力资本构成农民增收的格兰杰因果关系，两者都对农民增收产生显著影响，且人力资本影响效应更大。农民增收及人力资本对农村产业融合没有起到相应的促进作用。［结论］在实证分析的基础上，从加大人力资本投入、培育农村产业融合复合型人才及加强宣传引导工作等方面提出相应的政策建议促进农村产业融合。     

Hybridization: Understanding the microdynamics of a postacquisition integration process

There is no shortage of theoretical or empirical research on mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Knowledge on the subject has grown substantially in recent decades. However, the integration of firms involved in M&A remains a challenging and often unsuccessful process. In addition, there is a scarcity of research on temporal dynamics within integration projects. This article reports on the postacquisition integration of a business school into a university using the concept of organizational hybridization as a theoretical lens. The aim was to identify the microdynamics that occurred during integration. We conducted an inductive case study, interviewing professionals involved in the integration process, analyzing a wide range of documents, and conducting participant observation over 6 years. Field research revealed that different organizational components underwent distinct hybridization processes that were characterized by different degrees of conflict. This study contributes to the understanding of the microdynamics that occur in postmerger or postacquisition integration processes, focusing on the complex adjustments inherent in these developments.     

Smooth breaks and nonlinear mean reversion in real interest parity: Evidence from East Asian countries

This study aims to explore the empirical validity of the real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis for East Asian countries using Japan as the base country. To this end, we employ the recently proposed unit root tests of Christopoulos and Leon-Ledesma that account for both multiple smooth structural breaks of unknown form and nonlinear mean reversion in the series. Our empirical results uncover overwhelming evidences in favor of the RIP hypothesis for the whole countries in our sample. More specifically, through a Fourier approximation, it is observed that all real interest rate differentials display a mean-reverting behavior around an infrequently smooth-breaking mean, with the breaks being in accordance with the financial reforms and economic crises witnessed by the countries. Moreover, the degree of mean reversion appears to vary nonlinearly with the size of real interest rate appreciations and depreciations.     

Equity and the environment: An application of the Berliant–Strauss vertical and horizontal equity framework to measuring the distributional effects of air quality regulation

The distributional effects of a major air regulation in the United State in 2015 were analyzed using Berliant and Strauss Index Numbers, a set of theoretical and empirical equity metrics, and reduced‐form models that estimate the mortality effects of air pollutant emissions and their source contributions. By viewing the effects of pollution on human mortality as an implicit tax, we found progressivity in 54% to 56% of vertical comparisons and inequity in 92% to 94% of horizontal comparisons. The introduction of the proposed policy made 58% of vertical comparisons more progressive and was equitable to 70% of horizontal comparisons.     

Capital market integration in ASEAN: A non-stationary panel data analysis

Motivated by the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015, we examine saving-investment relationship in various subgroups of ASEAN to assess their capital market integration. The results from second generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence as well as estimates of long-run saving-retention rate provide some evidence of market integration in ASEAN. The analysis of short-run dynamics suggests that capital mobility in ASEAN during 1980–2014 appears similar to that in OECD countries during 1970–1999. More importantly, across different panel estimators and subgroups of membership, there is considerable heterogeneity among the member countries. The saving-investment association is very weak, thereby implying very high capital mobility, in more developed members such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei; the association is very strong, implying very low capital mobility, for much less developed members such as Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The results call for renewed effort to develop capital markets in less developed nations and integrate them with the rest of the membership in ASEAN. In this paper, we also address several major shortcomings of the original Feldstein-Horioka framework.     

Yen or Yuan? The law of one price and economic integration in Asia

Using highly comparable local retail prices of 146 goods and services across 18 Asian countries over 1990–2014, we analyse price dispersion and test convergence to the law of one price (LOP ) for these prices around three price benchmarks—Asia‐average, Japan and China prices—to gain insight about market integration in overall Asia as well relative integration of Asian economies to Japan and China. Cross‐Asia price dispersion around China‐price benchmark, for both tradables and non‐tradables, diminishes significantly over the sample period whereas that around Japan‐price benchmark increases considerably, particularly after the 2008 crisis. There is convergence to the LOP for about half of goods and services in China‐ and Asia‐average price benchmarks. The percentage of convergent prices is significantly smaller in Japan‐price benchmark. Direct estimates of the convergence speed parameter also confirm these observations. Overall, our results show evidence of increasing economic integration in Asia in the last two decades. The process of price convergence appears to be driven by the emergence of China as the centre of economic gravity in the region. There is much room for improvement as economic integration in Asia is still far below that in Europe in the 1990s or USA in the 1980s.     

A mechanisms-based explanation of nutrition policy (dis)integration processes in Uganda

Many African governments have recently invested in strengthened nutrition policy integration to address malnutrition; as a step towards realising the targets of the Sustainable Development Goal 2. Previous studies have identified various factors that enable or constrain how nutrition integration occurs across policy sectors. However, the explanatory value of these studies has remained relatively limited, as the causal processes through which independent variables affect policy outcomes remain unelucidated. This paper addresses this gap by applying a causal mechanisms approach to investigate the processes that explain observed patterns of nutrition policy (dis)integration in different ministries in Uganda. We employed a process-tracing research design to reconstruct the context-mechanism configurations that explain the observed patterns of nutrition integration in Uganda between 2000 and 2017. Data was collected from interviews with 34 respondents, various policy and programming documents, and a focus group discussion. Our analysis reveals that increased nutrition policy integration is explained by four causal mechanisms: (1) international policy promotion; (2) issue promotion by international actors; (3) issue promotion by domestic policy entrepreneurs; and (4) instrumental policy learning. Conversely, two mechanisms led to policy disintegration: (1) leadership contestation; and (2) turf wars. All mechanisms proved activated by configurations of contextual conditions that were time- and organisation-specific. This study showed how a mechanisms approach can provide a more refined understanding of policy successes and failures in nutrition governance. Whereas integration-fostering mechanisms cannot be automated, both government and international actors working to scale up investments in nutrition need to consider and invest in the contextual conditions that allow for sustained nutrition policy integration and, ultimately, a more effective delivery of nutrition services. These include developing leadership for nutrition at different governance levels, domestic ownership and integration-fostering capacity, and supporting policy-oriented learning.     

财政压力、技术创新与绿色全要素生产率

经济社会转型期典型的中国式"压力型"财政，对地方创新活动和绿色可持续发展具有重要影响。运用2004~2017年中国256个地级市面板数据，实证考察了财政压力对绿色全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。基准检验结果显示，财政压力显著抑制了绿色全要素生产率的提升，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用；中介效应检验发现，财政压力通过抑制技术创新进而阻碍绿色全要素生产率的提升，即验证了财政压力→技术创新→绿色全要素生产率的传导机制；进一步门槛效应检验表明，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的影响存在基于财政压力的双门槛效应，在财政压力的不同门槛值区间，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的促进效应呈现出明显的阶梯性降低趋势。未来需综合完善中国式"压力型"财政激励制度，合理控制财政压力的区间范围，助力技术创新以提升城市绿色全要素生产率。     

The effect of within-country inequality on international trade and investment agreements

There is anecdotal evidence suggesting that those losing from globalization influence policy makers to decrease the openness of their countries to globalization, as evidenced by signing international trade and investment agreements. Surprisingly, this influence has never been examined empirically. This study provides novel empirical evidence demonstrating that greater within-country inequality, our proxy for 'perceived losses' from globalization, decreases countries' propensity to sign regional trade and investment agreements. Our findings support the argument that the existence of 'losers' from globalization can be detrimental for continued globalization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first extensive econometric empirical evidence of the influence of within-country inequality on countries' willingness to sign international trade and investment agreements, as means to increase their global economic integration.